The Arizona Fall League wrapped up Saturday afternoon with the Mesa Solar Sox, the squad with all of the Cubs’ prospects, falling to the Peoria Javelinas by a score of 8-2. While watching Cubs prospects make it all the way to the league’s championship game is fun, the most important thing is seeing each player’s individual success (or lack thereof) while down in Mesa.

This year, the Cubs sent four pitchers to the league: Adbert Alzolay, Pedro Araujo, Alec Mills, and Jake Stinnett. In addition to the arms, four of the system’s bats were also sent down south. They were Ian Rice, David Bote, Jason Vosler, and Charcer Burks.

The importance of the AFL is twofold. The first reason why the league is so important for an organization is the level of talent that is present on the rosters every year. Consistently, the players that find themselves on one of the six teams are the top prospects across all of baseball. This season, the AFL saw the likes of Victor Robles, Kyle Tucker, Corey Ray, Tyler Jay, Mitch Keller, Francisco Mejia, and Ronald Acuna suiting up for their respective organizations. While the minor league season is important, the Arizona Fall League is a place for players across the country to be assembled for something of an All-Star style short season.

The Cubs themselves have sent many top prospects to the league over the past few seasons. Since just 2014, twelve players have suited up in their Chicago gear down in Mesa and made an appearance in the Major Leagues since. Each of those players have made their debut for the Cubs, with the exception of Vogelbach and Hannemann.

Vic Caratini – 2016
Ian Happ – 2016
Pierce Johnson – 2015
Rob Zastryzny – 2015
Willson Contreras – 2015
Jeimer Candelario – 2015
Mark Zagunis – 2015
Gerardo Concepcion – 2014
Carl Edwards Jr – 2014
Addison Russell – 2014
Dan Vogelbach – 2014
Jacob Hannemann – 2014

The second reason for the importance of the AFL is for teams to determine the worth of their own players. While many of the players are their teams’ top prospects, they are also very often players that have already reached the upper echelon of the minor leagues. In many cases, this league is the last opportunities for players to make their case to be added to the 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft.

This is the case especially for six of the eight players that Chicago sent down south, as Alzolay, Araujo, Stinnett, Bote, Burks, and Vosler are all eligible to be selected by other teams in the Rule 5 Draft this offseason if they are not placed on the 40-man roster. They spent this season essentially playing for the chance to be picked up by the big league club. Many of them did not disappoint.

Adbert Alzolay

Fall Stats: 11.2 IP, 6.17 ERA, 11 hits, 13 K, 3 BB, .244 opponent AVG

After a breakout season in the Cubs system in 2017, Alzolay earned his way to an appearance in the AFL and has cemented himself as one of the top pitching prospects in the system. Working as a starter for the Cubs, the 22 year old Venezuelan born was used strictly out of the bullpen for a Mesa roster that was stacked with starters. His stat line does not display the level at which this kid pitched this fall, mostly due to the clunker of an outing he had on Halloween where he allowed 6 runs on 3 home runs in two thirds of an inning of work. Take out that game and Alzolay only allowed 2 runs all season on only 2 hits, while striking out at least one batter in all but one outing. He has more than played himself onto the Cubs 40-man roster.

Pedro Araujo

Fall Stats: 10.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 5 hits, 15 K, 2 BB, .143 opponent AVG

Araujo had one of the better regular seasons of any reliever in the Cubs system in 2017 and he continued that dominance into the fall. The stats all but speak for themselves in this young man’s case and they all but mirror the statistics that he put up for Myrtle Beach out of the bullpen this year. He has shown that he is comfortable working as a reliever after spending the early portion of his career as a starter. While Araujo has put up the stats to warrant a 40-man roster move, the Cubs may try to sneak him through the draft without adding him to the roster, strictly due to his lack of experience in the upper levels of the minors.

Alec Mills

Fall Stats: 23 IP, 3.91 ERA, 26 hits, 20 K, 6 BB, .289 opponent AVG

The return for Donnie Dewees Jr in a trade prior to the 2017 regular season, Mills was acquired to be Major League starting pitcher depth. He spent much of the season on the disabled list, and that is the reason why we saw him in Mesa this season. He needed to get more innings pitched and his work as a starter in the AFL helped him achieve that. Once a top prospect, Mills is having to prove himself every day and he had mixed results this fall. He had a few rough outings, including his start in the AFL championship game on Saturday afternoon. Look for Mills to improve in 2018 with a healthy season in Iowa.

Jake Stinnett

Fall Stats: 10 IP, 1.80 ERA, 6 hits, 14 K, 3 BB, .182 opponent AVG

Another pitcher that has been struck with the injury bug over the course of his career, Stinnett got a late start on 2017 and was very good when he was deployed. Fast forward to this fall and he used the AFL as his coming out party where he really put himself on the map and made a terrific case to be added to the 40-man roster. If you remove his first outing of the fall where he allowed 2 runs on 4 hits, Stinnett posted nothing but zeros in the run column and only 1 (!) hit the rest of the season, including no hits in his last 5 outings. Previously a starter, Stinnett shows potential to be a back end of the bullpen candidate in the future. While he has my vote to be added to the 40-man, the Cubs may take a chance and not add him, due to question marks that other teams might have around his health that hold them back from selecting him in the Rule 5 Draft.

Ian Rice

Fall Stats: 45 AB, .311/.415/.467/.882, 7 doubles, 11 K, 7 BB

Rice continues to check off all of the boxes that he needs to as he progresses through the minor leagues. After a third straight successful regular season culminating in Tennessee this summer, Rice can now check off the AFL from his list. Rice has proven that his bat is one of the best in the farm system and especially valuable if he can stick around behind the plate as a catcher. His goal for this upcoming season in Iowa is to focus on improving his defense and making sure that bat is as valuable as it can possibly be as a catcher.

David Bote

Fall Stats: 69 AB, .333/.395/.536/.931, 4 HR, 14 K, 5 BB

You want to talk about a guy that is making a name for himself? Look no further than Bote. His 2017 regular season established himself as a true prospect, as opposed to an organizational depth role that he had played to this point in his career. Now his 2017 fall season went the next step further as he made his case to be placed on the 40-man roster. A very versatile infielder, Bote finds himself smack-dab on the bubble for that 40-man roster spot in my eyes. But at this point, his actions in the AFL are speaking louder than anyone’s words ever could.

Jason Vosler

Fall Stats: 81 AB, .210/.323/.333/.656, 2 HR, 24 K, 12 BB

What Bote did was exactly what I was hoping Vosler would accomplish in his time in the AFL. After a breakout first half of the 2017 regular season, Vosler started to taper off in the second half of the season with the power stroke that proved to be so valuable to his game early on. In order to make his way onto the 40-man roster, the young third baseman needed to prove that it was the second half of the season that was a fluke and the big power numbers were what to really expect from him. Instead, his AFL showing proved that all the home runs in Tennessee this season in the first half might have been him playing a little out of his league. At this point, I would be surprised to see Vosler get a call to the 40-man roster, but I still think he gets his shot at Iowa next season if he makes it through the draft as a member of the Cubs organization.

Charcer Burks

Fall Stats: 72 AB, .236/.321/.333/.654, 7 doubles, 19 K, 8 BB

Burks has just been chugging along in the farm system for what seems like 25 years now, slowly making his way all the way up to Tennessee in 2017 where he spent the entire year and had one of the best seasons of his professional career to this point. His showing in the AFL left a little to be desired while also showing glimpses of that gap to gap power and speed combination that all of us have grown accustomed to seeing from the 22 year old outfielder. I think Burks is in the same position as Bote as far as his likelihood of being placed on the 40-man roster, but with a major advantage coming from his tremendous speed and defense, including his ability to play all three outfield positions. I think a lot of people forget about Burks, but I would not be surprised at all to see him protected from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.

Greg’s Prediction

The Cubs 40-man roster currently sits at 34 players, meaning there are just six open slots for players to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. That means that the players that participated in this year’s Arizona Fall League, as well as dozens of other Cubs minor leaguers are battling it out for a very small amount of slots.

From this AFL roster, I think that Adbert Alzolay, Jake Stinnett, David Bote, and Charcer Burks get selected, leaving Pedro Araujo and Jason Vosler available to be plucked up by any other organization in baseball. That leaves just two slots open on the Cubs’ 40-man, which I think get taken up by Oscar De La Cruz and Trevor Clifton.