I’ve been sitting on this one for a while, people. “Kris Bryant at leadoff is an abomination” you say?! Well I’m going to break it to you that I think you are dead wrong on this one. My apologies in advance.
First I need to address why I am just now coming out and saying this.
Last season, the leadoff spot for the Chicago Cubs was a revolving door and it could not be permanently filled. The Kyle Schwarber project failed for many reasons for the first couple months of the season and after that, Maddon tried several other options to lead off games. Jon Jay, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, and Ian Happ all made appearances there.
While it seemed like everybody got a shot at the job, one guy did not get an audition: Kris Bryant. The idea of KB at the top of the order slowly crept into my head and by early this offseason, I had finally decided for myself that I was firmly on the bandwagon.
At that point the bandwagon was pretty barren and while I consider myself a haver of hot takes, I was somewhat skeptical of the decision to move Bryant up in the order one slot because of the lack of opportunity to hit with guys on base from that spot in the lineup.
But recent articles have brought this topic back to my attention both from this one over at BleacherNation and one where Bryant was quoted in saying, “I’d love to (hit leadoff). I did it in college. My whole junior year (at the University of San Diego), I was leadoff” to the Chicago Tribune on Tuesday.
So let’s take a look at the positives – and there are several – of KB being slotted into the lineup card at the top. The first one is seemingly the most important of them all and that is that he gets on base at an alarmingly impressive rate. He walked in 14.3% of his at-bats in 2017, the highest of his career and 7th best rate in the league. He also sported an on-base percentage of .409, again the highest in his career and up from an already nice .369 clip in his rookie season. His OBP sat him at 7th best in the league in that category as well.
In addition to his rising walk rates, Bryant has also seen his strikeout rate steadily decline during his three years in the league. Once a strikeout machine during his rookie season with a K% of 30.6%, he was able to bring that rate all the way down to league average at 19.2% in 2017, something that I was going crazy about back in September.
Another thing that Bryant has going for him in the argument to put the large adult man at the top of the order is his impressive baserunning ability. While his stolen base numbers have been pedestrian with only seven last year and the most in a season being his rookie year with 13, his legs do work on the base paths in other ways.
The first way for us to comprehend Bryant’s speed in the form of numbers is to look at the number of times he has grounded into a double play. Admittedly so, KB’s numbers in this category are naturally skewed because of his tendency to hit the ball in the air due to his aggressively upward swing path. But it goes without saying that a player’s pure speed and quickness play a very crucial role in avoiding grounding into the twin killing. Over the course of Bryant’s career, that is Major League, Minor League, and college numbers combined, he has had nearly 3,600 plate appearances. In those 3,600 plate appearances, he has managed to ground into a double play only 29 times. TWENTY-NINE. That is good for a 0.8% rate.
KB has also proven to be an all-around impressive baserunner during his time in the bigs. His BsR rating according to Fangraphs has been positive in each year since his promotion to Chicago, with ratings of 7.1, 7.3, and 4.8 respectively. That translates to Bryant being the fifth best baserunner in ALL OF BASEBALL over the past three seasons.
Joe Maddon and the Cubs spent the entire 2017 season trying to replace Dexter Fowler at the leadoff spot without much success to speak of. Many people believe the solution going into 2018 is to acquire a talent via trades or free agent signings but maybe – just maybe – the team doesn’t need to invest any resources in acquiring that guy.
That is because they have the answer in-house by the name of Kris Bryant. His experience in the league as a proven hitter gives him an advantage that Kyle Schwarber did not have last year and he has matured as a hitter year-in and year-out. Kris Bryant: Rookie of the Year, Most Valuable Player, Leadoff hitter extraordinaire?
Out of the Vines 