Since the day Nelson Velazquez made his season debut for the South Bend Cubs, he has torn up the league formerly known as the Midwest League. The stat sheet is remarkable, the eye test has been passed, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets the call up to Double-A Tennessee.

Although it seems like he has been kicking it in the Cubs system for years, Velazquez is still somehow only in his age-22 season. However, the book has been printed in pretty large font to this point. He has a body that’s built for power but had yet to showcase that raw pop in actual game action. The swing-and-miss has always happened a bit too often for my liking, but the ability to dream on prospect like Nelson is far too easy.

After getting a bit of a late start to full season ball in 2021, he came out of the gates hot. It was a real quick 14-for-28 to begin the season which, last time I checked, comes out to a pretty decent batting average. 13 of those 14 knocks came in as singles, some as hard-hit liners up the middle and an equal amount in the form of bloops, ducksnorts, and bleeders.

Then came the power. Five home runs in the last two weeks for the young outfielder. With a body that looks leaner and even more athletic than it did during the 2019 campaign, we could be seeing that raw power we’ve been dreaming on finally transforming into the in-game variety that turns “potential” into “results.”

The basic stat line is an absolute beauty:

83 plate appearances, .321/.341/.603/.944, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 6 home runs, 20 RBI

Velazquez has put up an OPS that is a whopping 32% above league average. When using Fangraphs wRC+, he sits at 142. He’s been terrific in that regard.

But then you dig just a little deeper. The right-handed hitter is striking out at an alarming rate of 36.1% (62 K%+, where 100 is league average) and walking a measly 3.6% of the time (33 BB%+). His swinging strike rate currently stands at 16.4%, which is on par with his career rates in that department. Another carrying statistic is that he has a 22.7% HR/FB rate which basically means the consistency at which his flyballs are leaving the ballpark is entirely outside the realm of being maintained.

So what do all these numbers and a varying performance like this mean?

In short, we’ll have to wait and see how his numbers both regress and progress to the mean. The extraordinary stats that he currently possesses won’t stick around forever, so we will just keep an eye on when his walk rate inevitably begins to rise, just how high will it get? When this home run streak comes to a close, how few and far between will the next wave of bombs be? Will his re-worked physique prevail as it pertains to his whiff rates?

I’ve been a believer in Nelson Velazquez for several years now. Numbers are wonky. They are confusing and entertaining and conclusions can be drawn in every which way, depending on the argument you are trying to make. But something statistics can’t tell you are how truly dominant a guy looks at the plate and his mannerisms, demeanor, and confidence. And when I watch Nellie stroll to the plate, hit a tank to dead centerfield, and celebrate with his teammates, I’m looking at a dude that is ready for the next challenge.